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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 1, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose

Seattle Kraken 4, San Jose Sharks 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 91% of the time.

SJS winsSEA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SEA31008114432
SJS1111906226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:29SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:26SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P1 14:19SJSFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, William Eklund · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P1 17:06SEAShane WrightGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
  5. P2 5:01SJSKlim KostinAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Fabian Zetterlund · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:52SEAJared McCannENAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 1:26SJSCalen Addison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 13:31SEAMatty Beniers: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:50SJSKyle Burroughs: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 19:44SEABrandon Tanev: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SEA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
46% to win54% to win
← SEA attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Beniers
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SEASJS
32Shots on goal26
5.0Expected goals2.0
64Shot attempts64
23Faceoffs won31
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
10Hits26
18Blocked shots13
6Giveaways8
5Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Seattle Kraken

Forward lines

  1. bestEberle – Schwartz – Wright11:57

    xG 1.23–0.14 (90%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0

  2. Burakovsky – McCann – Winterton10:02

    xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0

  3. Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Beniers10:40

    xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0

  4. Gourde – Tanev – Kartye9:39

    xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLarsson – Dunn15:39

    xG 1.44–0.44 (77%)attempts 27–17goals 1–1

  2. Dumoulin – Evans13:19

    xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 11–20goals 2–0

  3. Oleksiak – Borgen13:23

    xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0

San Jose Sharks

Forward lines

  1. bestGranlund – Kostin – Zetterlund11:33

    xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1

  2. Bailey – Kunin – Eklund11:14

    xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0

  3. Hoffman – Carpenter – Labanc5:58

    xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1

  4. Zadina – Sturm – Bordeleau8:19

    xG 0.27–1.01 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestVlasic – Rutta11:56

    xG 0.82–0.30 (73%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0

  2. Ferraro – Thrun2:22

    xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  3. Burroughs – Ferraro17:05

    xG 0.45–1.05 (30%)attempts 18–21goals 0–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.0 xGSEA 5.0 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSSEA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #770 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
SEA 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 91% of the time.

SJS winsSEA wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − SEA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).