Tue, Apr 2, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 14 | 08 | 59 | 621 |
| NJD | 110 | 211 | 05 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54PITErik KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:43NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:42NJDCurtis LazarAssists: Tomas Nosek, John Marino · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 17:47NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, John Marino · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 6:48PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 7:55PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jack St. Ivany, Michael Bunting · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 16:16PITRickard RakellGWGAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 16:38PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Michael Bunting, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 17:07PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Bryan Rust · Poke, 0.69 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:21PITReilly Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:44PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:11NJDTimo Meier: Interference2 min
- P2 12:57PITReilly Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 3:38NJDKevin Bahl: Interference2 min
- P3 6:22NJDJesper Bratt: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting9:28
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 13–3goals 4–0
- Carter – Puljujarvi – Bemstrom4:15
xG 0.07–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Bemstrom2:58
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor6:19
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shea – St. Ivany10:46
xG 0.28–0.24 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson15:26
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:16
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Bratt – Hischier12:20
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Palat – Nosek – Mercer2:30
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Hughes – Holtz3:37
xG 0.07–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Haula – Hughes – Mercer3:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (75%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Bahl14:31
xG 0.75–0.13 (85%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec12:48
xG 0.48–0.12 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Smith – Hughes12:58
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).