Tue, Apr 2, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Chicago Blackhawks 1, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 06 | 05 | 119 |
| NYI | 012 | 012 | 25 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Connor Bedard, Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 1:33NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 9:25NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:30NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:30CHIJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:10CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:53CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:37NYIMike Reilly: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Kurashev – Bedard14:58
xG 1.28–0.08 (94%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Foligno – Johnson – Raddysh9:47
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Anderson – Reichel8:22
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Donato – Entwistle – Slaggert7:36
xG 0.17–0.81 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic16:31
xG 1.40–0.54 (72%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Megna2:08
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Kaiser10:09
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall12:08
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom9:51
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Horvat – Barzal12:25
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean6:32
xG 0.22–0.91 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho13:08
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov14:30
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Pelech – Aho2:00
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).