Tue, Apr 2, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Boston Bruins 3, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 06 | 316 | 332 |
| NSH | 05 | 012 | 014 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:18BOSCharlie CoyleSHGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Linus Ullmark · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 17:18BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Danton Heinen, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P3 18:36BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Pavel Zacha, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:25BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:10NSHLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:05BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:19BOSJake DeBrusk: Interference2 min
- P2 17:22NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:33BOSMason Lohrei: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Heinen – Zacha7:18
xG 0.83–0.18 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Brazeau – Boqvist – Beecher2:16
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie4:22
xG 0.13–0.23 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk7:04
xG 0.03–0.60 (4%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy14:35
xG 0.91–0.55 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Peeke7:59
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Carlo – Lohrei8:06
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:32
xG 0.99–0.08 (92%)attempts 24–5goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista7:44
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith9:34
xG 0.14–0.44 (25%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Zucker – Sissons – Glass8:06
xG 0.37–0.85 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier14:02
xG 0.66–0.04 (94%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stastney7:00
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi13:41
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).