Tue, Apr 2, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 15 | 311 | 529 |
| CGY | 06 | 212 | 16 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:03ANAMason McTavishAssists: Olen Zellweger, Brett Leason · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:30CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:26CGYAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Nazem Kadri, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:36ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Olen Zellweger · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:52ANACam FowlerAssists: Trevor Zegras, Olen Zellweger · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 5:09ANAAlex KillornGWGAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 9:34CGYAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Martin Pospisil, MacKenzie Weegar · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 13:14ANAAlex KillornAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:02ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding2 min
- P2 2:25ANABen Meyers: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45CGYBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström5:17
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Zegras – McTavish5:50
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson15:44
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 21–17goals 2–1
- Johnston – Leason – Meyers3:41
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindstrom – LaCombe18:50
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Fowler – Zellweger14:59
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 19–11goals 2–2
- Lagesson – Vaakanainen13:51
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Zary2:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Zary – Coronato5:49
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Hunt3:24
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hunt – Greer – Rooney5:46
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Miromanov5:47
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson2:16
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Hanley – Andersson3:18
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).