Tue, Apr 2, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 19 | 112 | 330 |
| VGK | 49 | 113 | 18 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37VGKAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 6:23VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 9:20VANNils HoglanderAssists: Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 9:40VGKJack EichelAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P1 14:42VGKNoah HanifinPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 1:46VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Anthony Mantha · Poke, 0.19 xG1–5
- P2 6:13VANQuinn HughesPPAssists: Conor Garland, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 1:41VANQuinn HughesAssists: Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 2:05VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:44VANNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:09VGKShea Theodore: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:50VANNikita Zadorov: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 19:50VANNikita Zadorov: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 4:13VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:08VANTeddy Blueger: Holding2 min
- P3 6:00VANVasily Podkolzin: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:00VGKAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSuter – Podkolzin – Mikheyev8:41
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Boeser – Pettersson – Hoglander9:11
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Miller – Joshua – Garland8:25
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Blueger – Lafferty – Bains8:18
xG 0.06–0.21 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov3:39
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 1–2
- Cole – Soucy2:25
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel9:40
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev10:31
xG 0.52–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Cotter7:59
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden6:42
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Hague14:27
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 16–19goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:11
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:48
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).