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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 3, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

Seattle Kraken 2, Los Angeles Kings 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.

LAK winsSEA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SEA0307213223
LAK1721525527

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:24LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:39LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Matt Roy, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:49LAKTrevor MooreGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P3 5:40SEAAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jared McCann · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
  5. P3 10:45LAKKevin FialaAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
  6. P3 11:20SEABrian DumoulinAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 16:57LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 8:27SEAYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:02LAKKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
  3. P2 3:54LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 17:51SEAWill Borgen: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 0:59SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 3:20LAKAlex Laferriere: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 3:20SEAAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 3:20SEAVince Dunn: Abusive language10 min
  9. P3 3:20SEAVince Dunn: Abusive language10 min
  10. P3 3:43LAKBlake Lizotte: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SEA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
46% to win54% to win
← SEA attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Beniers
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SEALAK
23Shots on goal27
2.9Expected goals2.9
55Shot attempts47
25Faceoffs won23
4Power plays3
28Penalty minutes10
27Hits16
14Blocked shots17
1Giveaways5
4Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Seattle Kraken

Forward lines

  1. bestGourde – Tanev – Kartye10:00

    xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0

  2. Eberle – Schwartz – Wright12:57

    xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0

  3. Tatar – Burakovsky – McCann8:35

    xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2

  4. Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Beniers9:21

    xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDumoulin – Larsson2:32

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  2. Dumoulin – Borgen4:34

    xG 0.39–0.22 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1

  3. Dumoulin – Evans8:31

    xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:23

    xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  2. Lewis – Fiala – Lizotte8:37

    xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0

  3. Arvidsson – Dubois – Moore9:54

    xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 3–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestDoughty – Anderson12:34

    xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0

  2. Englund – Spence9:23

    xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0

  3. Gavrikov – Spence2:43

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 2.9 xGSEA 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKSEA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #710 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
SEA 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.

LAK winsSEA wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − SEA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).