Thu, Apr 4, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 312 | 06 | 110 | 428 |
| CAR | 08 | 112 | 09 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Morgan Geekie, Charlie Coyle · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:42BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 10:46BOSDanton HeinenAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 15:12CARJake GuentzelPPAssists: Stefan Noesen, Brady Skjei · Bat, 0.33 xG3–1
- P3 17:49BOSHampus LindholmENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:10CARJack Drury: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:10BOSJohn Beecher: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:03CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:54CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:41BOSBrandon Carlo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52BOSHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:55BOSMorgan Geekie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:22CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Boqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Geekie7:55
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Heinen – Zacha9:47
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- DeBrusk – Frederic – Boqvist7:35
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Lauko – Beecher5:02
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy14:55
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Wotherspoon2:06
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Peeke2:08
xG 0.12–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Guentzel – Necas3:57
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Fast – Noesen – Drury7:31
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Martinook – Necas4:31
xG 0.21–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Martinook2:22
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield16:27
xG 1.32–0.59 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce4:06
xG 0.34–0.00 (99%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce12:04
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).