Thu, Apr 4, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 26 | 110 | 18 | 424 |
| WSH | 09 | 05 | 117 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49PITRyan SheaAssists: Reilly Smith, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 11:03PITPierre-Olivier JosephGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Drew O'Connor · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 9:08PITMichael BuntingAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 6:02WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Sonny Milano, Hendrix Lapierre · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 17:23PITLars EllerENAssists: Reilly Smith, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.76 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:14PITJesse Puljujarvi: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:35PITErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:08WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:55PITErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:02PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:10WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting12:08
xG 0.62–0.16 (80%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Eller – Smith3:26
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Bemstrom3:58
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen3:12
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson16:29
xG 0.79–0.54 (60%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
- Shea – St. Ivany9:31
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Letang – Joseph14:46
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – McMichael5:37
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome5:24
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Milano – Lapierre4:35
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Sgarbossa – Malenstyn4:18
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry8:29
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 21–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin9:33
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Jensen – Alexeyev2:13
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).