Thu, Apr 4, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 218 | 18 | 210 | 536 |
| MIN | 111 | 118 | 017 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jack Johnson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:05MINVinni LettieriAssists: Mason Shaw, Jake Lucchini · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:28COLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Bat, 0.34 xG2–1
- P2 0:43COLJonathan DrouinGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 10:10MINDeclan ChisholmPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 6:32COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 18:32COLMikko RantanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:20MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:53COLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:22MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:44COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:05COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:26COLSean Walker: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParise – Wood – Colton11:16
xG 0.66–0.23 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen15:48
xG 1.40–1.01 (58%)attempts 24–19goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – Duhaime – Mittelstadt10:24
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Wagner – Kiviranta5:48
xG 0.01–0.27 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Walker2:27
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard13:43
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Walker9:59
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestLettieri – Shaw – Lucchini6:20
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy5:46
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi6:34
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Johansson – Gaudreau – Khusnutdinov2:15
xG 0.05–0.07 (38%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Merrill11:40
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber19:34
xG 1.05–1.32 (44%)attempts 22–23goals 0–2
- Middleton – Chisholm14:14
xG 0.42–0.87 (32%)attempts 14–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).