Thu, Apr 4, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 3, Nashville Predators 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 120 | 014 | 213 | 347 |
| NSH | 110 | 210 | 311 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:27STLBrandon SaadAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:13NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:29NSHAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 4:09NSHMichael McCarronGWGAssists: Kiefer Sherwood · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 6:21STLJake NeighboursAssists: Justin Faulk, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 17:45STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:16NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–5
- P3 19:23NSHMark JankowskiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:22NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:38NSHRyan O'Reilly: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:38STLTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:30STLBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37NSHKiefer Sherwood: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:09NSHAlexandre Carrier: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:11NSHLuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:16STLAlexey Toropchenko: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:25NSHJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:25STLRobert Thomas: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:59STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:30NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:51NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Walker – Blais4:19
xG 0.76–0.09 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Saad – Thomas – Neighbours10:22
xG 0.92–0.49 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Toropchenko7:25
xG 0.81–0.53 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kapanen – Bolduc4:51
xG 0.00–0.84 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko15:06
xG 1.34–0.67 (67%)attempts 23–15goals 1–1
- Faulk – Krug14:59
xG 1.19–1.05 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Tucker – Kessel7:07
xG 0.10–0.37 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista5:48
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zucker – Sissons – Beauvillier6:07
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith6:54
xG 0.29–0.73 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:28
xG 0.55–1.26 (31%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi11:51
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Schenn – Stastney8:15
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier12:09
xG 0.48–1.45 (25%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).