Fri, Apr 5, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 26 | 04 | 06 | 216 |
| CAR | 018 | 114 | 313 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 19:15WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 14:30CARJake GuentzelAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 11:40CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 18:09CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:55CARJake GuentzelENAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:24CAREvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P2 1:59WSHMax Pacioretty: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:28WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:17CARJaccob Slavin: Holding2 min
- P3 9:28CARStefan Noesen: Interference2 min
- P3 11:14WSHSonny Milano: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:41WSHRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome10:46
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – McMichael – Protas2:21
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Sgarbossa – McMichael – Protas7:00
xG 0.01–0.24 (5%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Milano – Lapierre7:54
xG 0.04–0.74 (6%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Fehérváry3:40
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–13goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin2:03
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Carlson – Sandin3:21
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Teravainen – Necas9:12
xG 0.84–0.04 (96%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Drury7:42
xG 0.79–0.07 (92%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Aho – Jarvis12:22
xG 0.69–0.01 (98%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:20
xG 0.29–0.85 (26%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield13:10
xG 0.83–0.08 (91%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:34
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin15:23
xG 0.82–0.78 (51%)attempts 26–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).