Sat, Apr 6, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 09 | 113 | 01 | 230 |
| BOS | 19 | 112 | 05 | 13 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:42BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Danton Heinen, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 15:45BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 5:24FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:05BOSJesper BoqvistGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:46FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P1 9:11FLANick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:25FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:21BOSPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:17BOSAndrew Peeke: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:40FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:40BOSAndrew Peeke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:11BOSParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:18FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:28BOSCharlie McAvoy: Embellishment2 min
- P3 4:28FLAAnton Lundell: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:23FLAJonah Gadjovich: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Barkov – Reinhart9:18
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell9:09
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk9:10
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich3:22
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola13:14
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 28–9goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling10:26
xG 1.01–0.44 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Mahura5:20
xG 0.10–0.00 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Heinen – Zacha7:49
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- DeBrusk – Frederic – Boqvist6:16
xG 0.00–0.03 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Lauko – Beecher2:48
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Geekie5:56
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Peeke10:03
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:12
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo9:55
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).