Sat, Apr 6, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 19 | 16 | 425 |
| MIN | 211 | 06 | 010 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 8:46MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:44WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Sean Monahan, Dylan DeMelo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 15:42MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brock Faber · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:39WPGAlex IafalloGWGAssists: Brenden Dillon, Vladislav Namestnikov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:46WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Dylan Samberg, Vladislav Namestnikov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:55WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:21WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:58MINMarat Khusnutdinov: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:56WPGMorgan Barron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:56MINKirill Kaprizov: Holding2 min
- P3 17:25WPGMorgan Barron: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Iafallo – Barron7:34
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 3–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi11:47
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lowry – Appleton9:30
xG 0.27–0.40 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Monahan – Connor – Perfetti9:53
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Samberg12:05
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk6:24
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk8:52
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:08
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 14–2goals 1–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:52
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Shaw – Lucchini5:52
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Kaprizov – Khusnutdinov2:25
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Chisholm19:02
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber15:12
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Merrill9:59
xG 0.17–0.79 (18%)attempts 9–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).