Sat, Apr 6, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 014 | 123 | 17 | 244 |
| CHI | 06 | 35 | 06 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:48CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:53CHIAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Lukas Reichel, Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 8:51CHISeth JonesGWGAssists: Ryan Donato, MacKenzie Entwistle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 15:37DALRoope HintzAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 15:37DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:42DALMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:28CHIJaycob Megna: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:33CHIJarred Tinordi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:54DALLogan Stankoven: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 16:10CHIJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:28CHIColin Blackwell: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:28DALMason Marchment: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bedard won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:52
xG 0.92–0.40 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston3:36
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Johnston7:41
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Faksa – Steel – Dellandrea7:49
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Lindell12:24
xG 1.05–0.20 (84%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Suter – Lundkvist10:00
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley16:55
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Dickinson – Kurashev – Bedard14:32
xG 0.45–0.54 (45%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johnson – Anderson10:47
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Athanasiou – Reichel7:21
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Donato – Entwistle – Slaggert7:55
xG 0.24–0.77 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Megna – Korchinski13:22
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
- Jones – Vlasic17:22
xG 0.57–1.08 (34%)attempts 13–26goals 2–0
- Tinordi – Kaiser14:16
xG 0.27–1.16 (19%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).