Sat, Apr 6, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 310 | 110 | 07 | 427 |
| OTT | 08 | 15 | 215 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50NJDErik HaulaAssists: Jack Hughes, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:36NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Luke Hughes, Alexander Holtz · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 16:34NJDBrendan SmithAssists: Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 0:33OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 11:04NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 3:37OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 14:17OTTBrady TkachukUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:20OTTBokondji Imama: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:20NJDKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:22OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00NJDKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00NJDKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51OTTBokondji Imama: Interference2 min
- P3 3:16NJDBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:19OTTThomas Chabot: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 15:57NJDNick DeSimone: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00NJDNico Hischier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Hughes8:11
xG 1.22–0.45 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Hughes5:35
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer8:35
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Palat – Nosek – Holtz9:45
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeSimone – Hughes15:35
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Smith – Bahl17:22
xG 0.94–0.41 (69%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec13:30
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kubalik – Imama – Smejkal2:58
xG 0.03–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Joseph – Katchouk – Kelly2:06
xG 0.01–0.01 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Batherson – Pinto2:52
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly5:44
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Brannstrom16:07
xG 0.78–0.77 (50%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub15:36
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker12:53
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).