Sat, Apr 6, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 4, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 18 | 210 | 427 |
| CGY | 09 | 118 | 18 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:44EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 3:13EDMConnor BrownAssists: Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 3:57CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 7:13CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Andrei Kuzmenko · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:36EDMEvan BouchardPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.74 xG3–2
- P3 19:17EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:44EDMCorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:17EDMBrett Kulak: Interference2 min
- P1 15:02EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:44CGYYegor Sharangovich: Interference2 min
- P1 18:55CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:46EDMEvander Kane: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16CGYDryden Hunt: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:47CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:47EDMMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:47CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:59EDMVincent Desharnais: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:52CGYOliver Kylington: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:00CGYConnor Zary: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:49EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zary won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Janmark – Ryan3:33
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Henrique – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele7:30
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – Draisaitl2:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid9:04
xG 0.43–0.92 (32%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulak – Desharnais9:57
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:34
xG 0.71–1.03 (41%)attempts 13–24goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse15:19
xG 0.62–0.97 (39%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Sharangovich10:14
xG 1.00–0.43 (70%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Hunt – Zary7:54
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko8:58
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Greer – Rooney – Coronato3:29
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov15:38
xG 0.92–0.41 (69%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Pachal7:56
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington13:07
xG 0.47–0.75 (38%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).