Sun, Apr 7, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 7, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 213 | 316 | 28 | 737 |
| COL | 112 | 213 | 113 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59COLSean WalkerAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Ross Colton · Snap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 17:11DALMatt DucheneAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:17DALJamie BennAssists: Esa Lindell, Wyatt Johnston · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 4:38COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 11:25DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 12:45DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 17:10DALMason MarchmentPPGWGAssists: Thomas Harley, Wyatt Johnston · Backhand, 0.30 xG5–2
- P2 19:15COLBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Casey Mittelstadt · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 10:15COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 15:12DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Logan Stankoven, Jamie Benn · Poke, 0.15 xG6–4
- P3 19:51DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.37 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:49DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:44DALRyan Suter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:15COLSean Walker: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:34COLCale Makar: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Stankoven – Johnston9:26
xG 1.38–0.35 (80%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel8:38
xG 0.78–0.61 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment9:51
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:56
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley10:23
xG 1.72–0.39 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Tanev – Lindell8:27
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:21
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin13:53
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Wagner – Kiviranta4:25
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Trenin – Duhaime – Colton7:39
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Parise – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt9:33
xG 0.28–1.04 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Toews – Walker2:20
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar15:48
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Walker10:56
xG 0.68–0.90 (43%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).