Tue, Apr 9, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 0, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 05 | 011 | 026 |
| FLA | 212 | 03 | 015 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02FLAAnton LundellPPGWGAssists: Anthony Stolarz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:48FLANick CousinsAssists: Niko Mikkola, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:20OTTZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:20FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:51FLANiko Mikkola: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:51OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:51OTTRidly Greig: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:17OTTArtem Zub: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:13FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P1 18:04FLAJosh Mahura: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:09OTTErik Brannstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:27FLAEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:38OTTParker Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:58OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Pinto10:39
xG 0.45–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly9:29
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Imama – MacEwen – Smejkal4:54
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Greig8:54
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Bernard-Docker11:32
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom12:47
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:08
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Tkachuk10:08
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell9:09
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barkov – Reinhart10:26
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich3:49
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMahura – Balinskis9:32
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola11:56
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling12:52
xG 0.16–0.45 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).