Tue, Apr 9, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Montréal Canadiens 9
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 012 | 314 | 336 |
| MTL | 18 | 514 | 38 | 930 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Mike Matheson, Cole Caufield · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 8:43MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 10:46MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Jordan Harris · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 11:22MTLJuraj SlafkovskýGWGAssists: David Savard · Snap, 0.26 xG0–4
- P2 12:42MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jordan Harris, Tanner Pearson · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–5
- P2 15:27MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Jordan Harris · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–6
- P3 4:54PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Owen Tippett, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 10:06MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard · Snap, 0.23 xG1–7
- P3 11:19MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Joel Armia, Johnathan Kovacevic · Snap, 0.24 xG1–8
- P3 15:05PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Olle Lycksell, Noah Cates · Snap, 0.23 xG2–8
- P3 17:07PHIErik JohnsonAssists: Owen Tippett, Garnet Hathaway · Snap, 0.03 xG3–8
- P3 18:17MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.31 xG3–9
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:31MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:45MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:45PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:46MTLAlex Newhook: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Lycksell – Farabee4:17
xG 0.86–0.04 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Foerster3:03
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Couturier – Tippett – Cates2:25
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Lycksell4:17
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Johnson14:25
xG 1.17–1.04 (53%)attempts 19–16goals 2–2
- Sanheim – York17:57
xG 1.06–0.93 (53%)attempts 24–20goals 1–1
- Seeler – Drysdale14:50
xG 0.69–1.06 (39%)attempts 14–23goals 0–5
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Armia – Newhook11:46
xG 1.44–0.42 (78%)attempts 21–12goals 3–0
- Pearson – Anderson – Evans10:24
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard8:30
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:51
xG 1.09–1.66 (40%)attempts 14–26goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Barron16:39
xG 1.22–1.05 (54%)attempts 20–25goals 2–0
- Savard – Matheson14:56
xG 1.16–1.16 (50%)attempts 13–19goals 3–1
- Kovacevic – Harris16:16
xG 1.09–1.14 (49%)attempts 27–20goals 4–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).