Tue, Apr 9, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 216 | 216 | 539 |
| NJD | 14 | 18 | 08 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:56TORNick RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 14:25NJDNico HischierAssists: Dawson Mercer, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:17NJDDawson MercerPPAssists: Nico Hischier · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 15:00TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Max Domi, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 15:09TORMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 7:33TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 18:47TORTyler BertuzziENAssists: Jake McCabe, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:10NJDSimon Nemec: Interference2 min
- P1 19:11NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:05TORMatthew Knies: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55NJDChris Tierney: Holding2 min
- P3 15:31TORTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Holmberg – Robertson6:39
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner4:06
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – Knies10:46
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – McMann7:05
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit13:40
xG 1.41–0.19 (88%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Giordano – Timmins14:12
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:06
xG 0.43–0.44 (50%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Hischier – Bowers8:57
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Tierney – MacDermid – Foote5:40
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Meier – Holtz10:06
xG 0.06–0.41 (13%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Palat – Nosek – Mercer11:50
xG 0.10–0.93 (10%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Siegenthaler – Marino2:17
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec2:19
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Bahl12:11
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).