Tue, Apr 9, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 111 | 012 | 232 |
| TBL | 110 | 111 | 312 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:31TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:17CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Cole Sillinger, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:13CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:17TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:40TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 5:56TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brandon Hagel, Erik Cernak · Slap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:57TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:48TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:49TBLMitchell Chaffee: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:17CBJDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:07CBJJustin Danforth: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Danforth – Voronkov11:30
xG 0.71–0.57 (55%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger15:06
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Gaunce – Danforth – Malatesta3:17
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Pyyhtia11:29
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski20:19
xG 1.05–0.44 (70%)attempts 29–20goals 0–0
- Jiricek – Blankenburg11:39
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Provorov16:22
xG 0.24–0.60 (28%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Duclair – Point12:10
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel11:54
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot9:57
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee13:36
xG 0.13–0.61 (18%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dumba – Lilleberg16:29
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Cernak – Perbix15:44
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh16:17
xG 0.58–0.87 (40%)attempts 21–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).