Tue, Apr 9, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 05 | 05 | 222 |
| COL | 214 | 39 | 09 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:38COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 10:14MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P1 19:40MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Declan Chisholm · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:15COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 14:50COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 19:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:42MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:04MINMason Shaw: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:13COLCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:52COLChris Wagner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:45MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
- P2 7:37COLNathan MacKinnon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:39COLZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:10MINMarat Khusnutdinov: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:46COLSean Walker: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Gaudreau – Boldy2:48
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:59
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi11:29
xG 0.09–0.32 (22%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Kaprizov2:42
xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Chisholm5:58
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chisholm4:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber3:22
xG 0.01–0.15 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin11:23
xG 0.90–0.06 (94%)attempts 14–6goals 4–0
- Trenin – Duhaime – Colton8:21
xG 0.24–0.00 (99%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – Kiviranta4:25
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt9:13
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:30
xG 0.54–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Manson – Girard12:02
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Girard – Walker2:45
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).