Wed, Apr 10, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 06 | 16 | 118 |
| EDM | 17 | 29 | 29 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:37EDMCody CeciAssists: Ryan McLeod, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:38EDMMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 8:06EDMZach HymanAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P3 6:50EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman · Slap, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 7:50VGKKeegan KolesarSHAssists: Noah Hanifin, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 9:56EDMDylan HollowayUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 18:31VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:38VGKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 6:23VGKJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Amadio – Cotter11:17
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Mantha – Dorofeyev11:38
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Kolesar – Howden – Brisson8:45
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel13:59
xG 0.62–1.75 (26%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hanifin – Hague18:28
xG 0.85–0.81 (51%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud13:16
xG 0.03–0.52 (5%)attempts 8–18goals 0–3
- McNabb – Theodore19:48
xG 0.82–1.42 (37%)attempts 24–17goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl13:47
xG 1.20–0.52 (70%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Perry – McLeod – Holloway11:21
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Henrique – Kane – Foegele13:19
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Carrick – Brown – Janmark10:45
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:59
xG 1.47–0.53 (73%)attempts 18–15goals 3–0
- Ceci – Nurse19:25
xG 1.09–0.82 (57%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais16:32
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).