Thu, Apr 11, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 110 | 29 | 01 | 530 |
| PIT | 28 | 210 | 17 | 12 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 3:39DETLucas RaymondAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:09PITKris LetangAssists: Michael Bunting, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 19:46DETLucas RaymondAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 7:58PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 12:44PITBryan RustAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 19:24DETJeff PetryAssists: Moritz Seider, Daniel Sprong · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 3:32PITJeff CarterSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 12:56DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–5
- P3 14:53DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
- OT 1:40PITErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.16 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:09DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:22PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P2 10:00DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:00PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min
- P2 14:04PITMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:13PITRadim Zohorna: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:44DETZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond12:36
xG 0.99–0.75 (57%)attempts 23–15goals 3–3
- Fabbri – Sprong – Veleno6:06
xG 0.16–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Fischer – Czarnik – Aston-Reese4:53
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Fischer – Czarnik – Veleno2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere12:01
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider15:19
xG 0.73–0.75 (49%)attempts 16–13goals 3–3
- Petry – Edvinsson13:21
xG 0.81–0.85 (49%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – O'Connor6:40
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen3:38
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Smith – Rust4:54
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 2–1
- Carter – Eller – O'Connor2:51
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson17:27
xG 0.92–0.51 (64%)attempts 19–17goals 2–3
- Karlsson – Joseph2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Shea – St. Ivany8:22
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).