Thu, Apr 11, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 37 | 16 | 27 | 620 |
| TOR | 212 | 210 | 110 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 0:39NJDErik HaulaUnassisted · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 6:08TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 7:57NJDNolan FooteUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P1 12:37NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 7:59TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 9:16TORDavid KampfAssists: Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–4
- P2 19:48NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 11:03NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 15:13TORJohn TavaresAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.23 xG5–5
- P3 18:46NJDJesper BrattGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:50TORMax Domi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:09NJDSimon Nemec: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:51NJDGraeme Clarke: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:53TORMax Domi: Instigator2 min
- P2 11:53TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:53NJDSimon Nemec: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:53TORMax Domi: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 18:56TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:13TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:17NJDOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Palat – Bowers – Holtz3:45
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Meier – Mercer12:44
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Tierney – MacDermid – Foote3:36
xG 0.24–0.36 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Bratt – Hischier – Clarke11:40
xG 0.11–1.16 (8%)attempts 9–15goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Marino – Hughes11:30
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Siegenthaler – Marino4:38
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Bahl15:48
xG 0.78–0.98 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 2–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Marner3:37
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – McMann5:03
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – Robertson8:27
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Marner – Matthews5:08
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lyubushkin14:22
xG 1.16–0.33 (78%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Brodie – Edmundson14:51
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
- Giordano – Benoit12:16
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).