Thu, Apr 11, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 07 | 16 | 123 |
| LAK | 18 | 213 | 19 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:54LAKViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:42LAKAkil ThomasAssists: Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 8:28CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Daniil Miromanov, Connor Zary · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:46LAKViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:22CGYDaniil Miromanov: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 7:20LAKViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:50LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:50CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:50LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:50CGYBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min
- P2 9:54CGYMatt Coronato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:02CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:21CGYMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Zary – Duehr3:49
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Mangiapane – Greer – Rooney2:04
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Mangiapane – Zary8:25
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko11:55
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Miromanov16:01
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington9:13
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Pachal – Solovyov5:22
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore11:47
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Lewis – Fiala – Lizotte8:58
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:39
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dubois – Thomas – Laferriere6:45
xG 0.21–0.28 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence11:44
xG 0.87–0.22 (80%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Roy17:14
xG 0.80–0.61 (57%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
- Doughty – Anderson18:03
xG 0.34–0.30 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).