Fri, Apr 12, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 29 | 210 | 28 | 627 |
| ANA | 05 | 05 | 312 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54CGYAndrew MangiapaneSHAssists: Brayden Pachal, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 11:53CGYNazem KadriAssists: Martin Pospisil, Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 5:43CGYAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 18:28CGYConnor ZaryGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Dryden Hunt · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 2:54ANASam ColangeloAssists: Isac Lundeström, Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 6:13ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 7:01ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Cam Fowler, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 14:22CGYAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 17:19CGYAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Martin Pospisil, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.26 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:55CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:08CGYBrayden Pachal: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:23ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:04ANABo Groulx: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:43ANATrevor Zegras: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 12:31ANAIsac Lundeström: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:09ANAAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:09CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58ANARadko Gudas: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko11:18
xG 1.36–0.34 (80%)attempts 25–11goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Hunt – Zary11:33
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Rooney – Duehr – Coronato7:37
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Sharangovich11:07
xG 0.29–0.60 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov14:47
xG 0.89–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington17:01
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Pachal – Okhotiuk11:47
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJohnston – Groulx – Leason8:19
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras10:25
xG 0.51–0.54 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Colangelo9:41
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson11:21
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Lindstrom12:03
xG 0.51–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe16:45
xG 0.65–0.91 (41%)attempts 15–22goals 2–0
- Fowler – Zellweger14:53
xG 0.38–1.19 (24%)attempts 15–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).