Fri, Apr 12, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 2, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 17 | 19 | 227 |
| VGK | 37 | 15 | 318 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57VGKNicolas RoySHAssists: Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 6:21VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 8:35VGKJack EichelPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 7:42MINMarat KhusnutdinovPPAssists: Brock Faber, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 13:12VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 2:27VGKTomas HertlAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 7:13MINRyan HartmanAssists: Matt Boldy, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 10:49VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Paul Cotter, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–6
- P3 13:55VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Nicolas Roy, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:10VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Elbowing2 min
- P1 8:16MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:03MINAdam Beckman: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:18VGKPaul Cotter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:45MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:35MINMarcus Johansson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:28VGKZach Whitecloud: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy10:42
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi3:14
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren8:22
xG 0.10–0.42 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Johansson – Hartman – Rossi9:51
xG 0.24–0.58 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Middleton2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Merrill – Middleton2:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber13:46
xG 0.85–0.94 (47%)attempts 22–16goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Cotter7:28
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hertl – Stephenson – Dorofeyev10:04
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel10:38
xG 0.26–0.32 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Mantha – Howden11:42
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud14:11
xG 1.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–4goals 3–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:50
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Hague13:52
xG 0.68–0.90 (43%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).