Sat, Apr 13, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Seattle Kraken 1, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 08 | 111 | 127 |
| DAL | 14 | 119 | 17 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:57DALCraig SmithAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 19:23DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 12:23DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Joe Pavelski, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 14:11SEAKailer YamamotoAssists: Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:13DALRadek Faksa: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:59DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:52SEAJamie Oleksiak: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 18:22SEARyker Evans: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44SEABrandon Tanev: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:26DALMatt Duchene: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:56SEAKailer Yamamoto: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Burakovsky – Beniers10:50
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Yamamoto – Kartye7:45
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Tolvanen7:16
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – McCann10:39
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:14
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin13:01
xG 0.50–0.65 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Evans16:13
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:49
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston10:04
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:33
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel6:47
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley9:48
xG 0.87–0.44 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Tanev – Harley3:10
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:48
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).