Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 28 | 014 | 06 | 01 | 229 |
| FLA | 213 | 011 | 016 | 12 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59BUFTyson JostAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:02FLAAnton LundellAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Nick Cousins · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 8:11FLAKevin StenlundSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P1 9:48BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: Bowen Byram, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- OT 3:58FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:57FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:09BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:54FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P3 6:04BUFConnor Clifton: Match penalty5 min
- P3 19:25BUFAlex Tuch: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Okposo
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka14:50
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Jost – Rousek6:42
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Greenway – Krebs8:34
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson8:53
xG 0.25–0.96 (21%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Power2:41
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Byram3:03
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power2:22
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Tkachuk13:11
xG 1.15–0.23 (83%)attempts 23–5goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell10:05
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barkov – Reinhart11:42
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Stenlund – Lorentz6:40
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola6:44
xG 0.81–0.05 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola6:01
xG 0.54–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Balinskis5:01
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).