Sat, Apr 13, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 412 | 212 | 631 |
| PIT | 013 | 28 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:08BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Andrew Peeke, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 8:22BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 10:27PITBryan RustAssists: Drew O'Connor, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 11:35BOSKevin ShattenkirkAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 14:54BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–1
- P2 15:52PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 4:32PITDrew O'ConnorSHAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 14:10BOSMorgan GeekieGWGAssists: Jakub Lauko, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 17:13BOSDanton HeinenENAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.69 xG6–3
- P3 18:39PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Michael Bunting, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.29 xG6–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:52BOSMorgan Geekie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:51PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:37BOSJesper Boqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:44PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:08PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Boqvist – Lauko5:04
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Heinen – Zacha10:01
xG 0.80–0.40 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:34
xG 0.79–0.62 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Lauko2:23
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy9:29
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Shattenkirk – Peeke8:51
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Lindholm – Carlo12:00
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith – Puustinen8:15
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Eller – Smith2:42
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–2
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor12:17
xG 0.66–0.84 (44%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Carter – Bemstrom – Zohorna3:39
xG 0.07–0.30 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Joseph14:49
xG 0.38–0.75 (33%)attempts 22–16goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson15:43
xG 0.98–1.36 (42%)attempts 22–18goals 0–2
- Shea – St. Ivany7:39
xG 0.17–0.61 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).