Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 113 | 15 | 327 |
| EDM | 013 | 112 | 08 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:44VANSam LaffertyAssists: Nikita Zadorov, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:00VANPius SuterGWGAssists: Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 17:48EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor Brown, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:13VANDakota JoshuaENAssists: Elias Lindholm, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:08VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:17VANTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:00EDMCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:14EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Lafferty – Podkolzin8:14
xG 0.38–0.31 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Hoglander – Mikheyev9:39
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Joshua – Garland10:41
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter9:38
xG 0.35–1.00 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov14:22
xG 0.80–0.14 (86%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Myers – Hughes2:15
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Soucy14:31
xG 0.35–0.68 (34%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl14:09
xG 0.92–0.28 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Kane – Foegele10:30
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Carrick – Brown – Janmark8:08
xG 0.46–0.44 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Kane2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais12:50
xG 1.17–0.19 (86%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:56
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).