Sat, Apr 13, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 213 | 313 | 112 | 638 |
| SJS | 19 | 112 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19MINMatt BoldyAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:32SJSJan RuttaAssists: Mario Ferraro, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:51MINDeclan ChisholmAssists: Jon Merrill, Liam Ohgren · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 14:23MINLiam OhgrenGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Marat Khusnutdinov · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 15:52SJSMario FerraroAssists: William Eklund, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 19:04MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Brock Faber, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P2 19:51MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.22 xG5–2
- P3 1:46MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jon Merrill, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:56SJSThomas Bordeleau: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57MINZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 19:23SJSFabian Zetterlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Rossi9:32
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy10:35
xG 0.78–0.51 (60%)attempts 20–17goals 2–2
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi2:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kaprizov – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren4:32
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodin14:07
xG 0.73–0.28 (73%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Merrill6:35
xG 0.49–0.09 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber12:06
xG 0.69–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Labanc – Sturm9:29
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Bailey – Studnicka – Bordeleau7:47
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund13:58
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 14–23goals 2–1
- Kunin – Kostin – Graf11:40
xG 0.07–0.84 (8%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Addison12:33
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Rutta16:02
xG 0.39–0.93 (29%)attempts 12–22goals 1–2
- Burroughs – Thrun16:07
xG 0.27–1.00 (21%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).