Sun, Apr 14, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 111 | 02 | 00 | 324 |
| VGK | 06 | 011 | 311 | 12 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26COLRoss ColtonAssists: Miles Wood, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:34COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 12:50COLMikko RantanenAssists: Josh Manson, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 2:56VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Noah Hanifin · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 6:35VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 16:23VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Brett Howden, Zach Whitecloud · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:23VGKTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:51VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:04COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:40VGKBrett Howden: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:40COLJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:52COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:48COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Rantanen – Mittelstadt11:11
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin10:56
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen2:57
xG 0.12–0.01 (94%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wood – Duhaime – Colton8:34
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Walker14:01
xG 1.02–0.52 (66%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar15:38
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 9–20goals 2–0
- Manson – Toews2:22
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Eichel – Cotter6:14
xG 0.41–0.11 (78%)attempts 14–2goals 0–1
- Barbashev – Kolesar – Roy4:03
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel7:22
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hertl – Stephenson – Dorofeyev10:40
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud13:18
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:26
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Hague16:51
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).