Mon, Apr 15, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 25 | 14 | 110 | 419 |
| NJD | 08 | 19 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Pierre Engvall, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 16:52NYIKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Mike Reilly, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 3:25NJDTimo MeierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:48NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Hudson Fasching, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 6:17NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Anders Lee, Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:26NJDChris Tierney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:57NYIMike Reilly: Holding2 min
- P3 2:52NYIRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Horvat – Barzal12:13
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean8:03
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Fasching9:44
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Engvall9:23
xG 0.07–0.59 (10%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Reilly11:28
xG 0.68–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Reilly – Romanov2:27
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:54
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Mercer – Holtz10:42
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Tierney – MacDermid – Foote2:53
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Palat – Nosek – Bowers3:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Palat – Nosek – Foote5:22
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Nemec12:17
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Marino – Hughes14:57
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Bahl13:09
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 14–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).