Mon, Apr 15, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Nashville Predators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 05 | 216 | 09 | 230 |
| PIT | 220 | 18 | 110 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 13:50PITErik KarlssonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 7:24NSHGustav NyquistAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 8:21PITReilly SmithGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:36NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 2:42PITEmil BemstromAssists: Erik Karlsson, Marcus Pettersson · Slap, 0.09 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:20NSHLuke Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 14:21NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:36NSHMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:36PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:06NSHJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:31NSHJason Zucker: Abuse of officials10 min
- P3 7:09PITReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:25NSHAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:31
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Novak – Beauvillier – Evangelista7:09
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith6:42
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Zucker – Jankowski – Sissons7:01
xG 0.40–0.56 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Lauzon3:42
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi15:47
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Lauzon – Fabbro9:28
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – O'Connor10:17
xG 0.85–0.56 (60%)attempts 25–6goals 1–1
- Carter – Eller – Smith4:13
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen6:51
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting10:54
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph16:03
xG 0.92–0.66 (58%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson14:48
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 21–17goals 2–1
- Shea – St. Ivany9:23
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).