Mon, Apr 15, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 18 | 112 | 328 |
| LAK | 07 | 05 | 112 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 19:55MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 8:25MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marco Rossi, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 14:36LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Kevin Fiala, Cam Talbot · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:04MINZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P1 13:42LAKAlex Laferriere: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:00MINAlex Goligoski: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:29LAKMikey Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:38LAKAndreas Englund: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:42MINMason Shaw: Holding2 min
- P3 19:58MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKaprizov – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren5:22
xG 0.58–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy8:49
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Shaw – Lucchini5:59
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Boldy – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren3:23
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodin11:37
xG 0.77–0.06 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Merrill – Chisholm3:11
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chisholm2:58
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDubois – Thomas – Byfield4:02
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Lewis – Fiala – Lizotte9:10
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Dubois – Thomas – Laferriere2:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield4:29
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy12:17
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Englund – Spence10:52
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Spence2:37
xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).