Tue, Apr 16, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 216 | 110 | 015 | 341 |
| CBJ | 313 | 18 | 24 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37CBJLuca Del Bel BelluzAssists: Mikael Pyyhtia, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:24CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Cole Sillinger, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 7:10CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Maxime Comtois, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 18:16CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 19:01CBJJames MalatestaAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 10:16CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Brent Burns, Stefan Noesen · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 12:18CBJJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Justin Danforth, Zach Werenski · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 0:47CBJAlex NylanderAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 19:21CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:25CBJLuca Del Bel Belluz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:07CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:16CBJErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:21CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:45CBJDavid Jiricek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:56CBJCole Sillinger: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:19CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Comtois – Kotkaniemi8:49
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Drury6:04
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Necas – Nadeau2:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Fast – Nadeau4:54
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Coghlan3:47
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Coghlan4:07
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- DeAngelo – Morrow2:26
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Nylander – Danforth11:48
xG 0.97–0.33 (75%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Pyyhtia – Del Bel Belluz – Brindley8:32
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Malatesta10:28
xG 0.54–1.00 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Texier – Marchenko – Sillinger8:52
xG 0.20–0.83 (19%)attempts 4–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Werenski3:09
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- Severson – Werenski12:55
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Severson – Provorov2:18
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).