Tue, Apr 16, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 17 | 219 | 02 | 1 | 540 |
| MTL | 18 | 217 | 15 | 03 | 0 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:32MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Logan Mailloux · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 18:29DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 6:17MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Joel Armia, Jayden Struble · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 10:09MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.47 xG1–3
- P2 10:45DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 3:31DETDaniel SprongUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 12:46MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Lane Hutson, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:55DETDavid PerronAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 2. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 3. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 4. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 5. DET Patrick Kane scored
Penalties (3)
- P2 16:18DETChristian Fischer: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:07DETLucas Raymond: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 1:52DETPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond14:47
xG 1.50–0.97 (61%)attempts 24–13goals 1–1
- Sprong – Czarnik – Veleno5:39
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Perron – Kane – Veleno3:12
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Perron – Kane – Compher12:00
xG 0.23–0.66 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere15:51
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Petry – Edvinsson13:16
xG 0.88–0.74 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider19:25
xG 1.27–2.15 (37%)attempts 28–25goals 2–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:33
xG 1.83–0.78 (70%)attempts 18–20goals 2–2
- Gallagher – Armia – Newhook10:39
xG 1.15–0.64 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Pearson – Dvorak – Evans2:37
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Harvey-Pinard11:56
xG 0.07–0.59 (10%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Barron14:29
xG 1.24–0.67 (65%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Matheson – Mailloux18:37
xG 1.47–1.13 (57%)attempts 20–22goals 2–1
- Savard – Hutson17:52
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).