Wed, Apr 17, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 115 | 213 | 116 | 444 |
| NYI | 112 | 211 | 29 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:29PITRickard RakellAssists: Michael Bunting, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:14PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 13:19NYICasey CizikasAssists: Alexander Romanov, Samuel Bolduc · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 14:37PITValtteri PuustinenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 19:44NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 1:36NYISamuel BolducPPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Ruslan Iskhakov · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 10:56PITJeff CarterPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Michael Bunting · Deflected, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 14:27NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Kyle MacLean · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:39PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:53NYISebastian Aho: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:30PITJack St. Ivany: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:44PITValtteri Puustinen: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 9:06NYIRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:30NYIBrock Nelson: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Harkins – Puljujarvi9:04
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen8:40
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting12:26
xG 0.85–0.91 (48%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor11:55
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson14:49
xG 1.00–0.69 (59%)attempts 32–11goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Shea – St. Ivany9:32
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Iskhakov5:30
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Horvat – Wahlstrom10:22
xG 0.69–0.56 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Holmstrom6:19
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean10:22
xG 0.27–0.88 (24%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:53
xG 0.59–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Reilly – Pulock2:05
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Reilly – Bolduc3:57
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).