Wed, Apr 17, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 1, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 112 | 06 | 02 | 0 | 126 |
| DAL | 010 | 013 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:19STLRobert ThomasAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 5:11DALMason MarchmentAssists: Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 5. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 6. STL Robert Thomas stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:53STLTyler Tucker: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:25DALEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:37STLScott Perunovich: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:30STLScott Perunovich: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Buchnevich – Kyrou12:19
xG 1.12–0.73 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko11:06
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Thomas – Bolduc12:42
xG 0.14–0.61 (19%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Walker – Blais – Dean8:57
xG 0.20–1.01 (17%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Tucker10:32
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Leddy – Kessel17:40
xG 0.68–1.53 (31%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
- Parayko – Perunovich18:19
xG 0.16–1.22 (12%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Stankoven – Johnston9:49
xG 1.12–0.38 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel7:30
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Duchene – Marchment11:22
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:45
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tanev4:36
xG 0.99–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Tanev – Lindell8:00
xG 0.88–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley11:54
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).