Thu, Apr 18, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 16 | 05 | 220 |
| WPG | 18 | 18 | 210 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22VANConor GarlandUnassisted · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:26WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Alex Iafallo, Brad Lambert · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 0:55WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Mason Appleton, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 17:11VANElias LindholmPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:18WPGNikita ChibrikovGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 17:55WPGCole PerfettiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:48VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:29WPGGabriel Vilardi: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:16WPGLogan Stanley: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:27VANVasily Podkolzin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:46WPGLaurent Brossoit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:07VANNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:07VANNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:07WPGGabriel Vilardi: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:31VANSam Lafferty: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Mikheyev11:05
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Suter – Aman7:16
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Joshua – Garland9:11
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Blueger – Lafferty – Podkolzin7:08
xG 0.00–0.33 (1%)attempts 3–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes2:56
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Soucy11:44
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Juulsen – Hughes11:11
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAppleton – Kupari – Perfetti9:35
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Lambert6:38
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Gustafsson – Chibrikov6:17
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Monahan – Ehlers10:46
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk12:36
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Samberg2:08
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Schmidt11:24
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).