Thu, Apr 18, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 1, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 06 | 16 | 117 |
| CGY | 216 | 313 | 08 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13CGYAdam KlapkaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:40CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Connor Zary, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 3:53CGYOliver KylingtonAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 5:59CGYKevin RooneyAssists: Martin Pospisil, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 6:56CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Daniil Miromanov, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–5
- P3 19:51SJSFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Collin Graf · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:35CGYMartin Pospisil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:33SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:54CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:54SJSGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:17CGYMartin Pospisil: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:17SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:17CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Bordeleau – Graf6:16
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund14:06
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Sturm – Gushchin – Graf4:42
xG 0.05–0.12 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kunin – Kostin – Gushchin6:33
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Thompson15:17
xG 0.86–0.37 (70%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Ferraro13:33
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Addison – Thrun15:27
xG 0.20–1.70 (11%)attempts 9–28goals 0–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko11:37
xG 0.93–0.08 (92%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Kuzmenko2:20
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Zary11:23
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Rooney – Coronato – Klapka6:39
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington18:05
xG 1.48–0.71 (68%)attempts 24–15goals 2–0
- Weegar – Miromanov19:06
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Pachal – Solovyov12:14
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).