Thu, Apr 18, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 110 | 39 | 423 |
| VGK | 011 | 110 | 012 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 18:47VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Shea Theodore, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 0:51ANAJackson LaCombeGWGAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 1:20ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Ryan Strome, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 19:45ANAFrank VatranoENAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:14VGKMichael Amadio: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:52ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:38ANAGustav Lindstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:56ANATroy Terry: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras9:07
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson12:43
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Johnston – Leason7:49
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Terry – Lundeström – Colangelo11:04
xG 0.37–0.64 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe17:40
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Lindstrom15:07
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Fowler – Zellweger17:28
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Eichel – Howden14:09
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter7:44
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hertl – Barbashev – Dorofeyev13:47
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Amadio – Rondbjerg10:19
xG 0.12–0.27 (32%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore18:57
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Hutton – Whitecloud6:00
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud10:25
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).