Wed, Oct 9, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 315 | 113 | 212 | 640 |
| PIT | 011 | 09 | 011 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24NYRSam CarrickGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Jonny Brodzinski · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 17:23NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 19:48NYRChris KreiderAssists: Jacob Trouba, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 9:39NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Will Cuylle · Snap, 0.14 xG4–0
- P3 11:35NYRChris KreiderSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–0
- P3 16:59NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–0
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:06PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:34NYRWill Cuylle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:19NYRJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:42NYRFilip Chytil: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:42PITMarcus Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:52PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:46NYRReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Cuylle12:25
xG 1.71–0.68 (71%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad9:50
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Edstrom8:26
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:25
xG 0.55–0.80 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Schneider15:22
xG 1.59–0.45 (78%)attempts 25–23goals 2–0
- Fox – Miller13:42
xG 1.05–0.74 (59%)attempts 20–16goals 2–0
- Jones – Mancini15:36
xG 0.99–1.38 (42%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Beauvillier6:05
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting4:12
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Puljujarvi – McGroarty8:10
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Crosby – Beauvillier – O'Connor6:16
xG 0.49–0.64 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Grzelcyk16:49
xG 1.06–0.69 (61%)attempts 25–11goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson16:40
xG 0.67–1.51 (31%)attempts 20–25goals 0–1
- Graves – St. Ivany9:48
xG 0.27–1.23 (18%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).