Wed, Oct 9, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 6, Edmonton Oilers 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 28 | 37 | 15 | 620 |
| EDM | 09 | 014 | 07 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 18:35WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 4:17WPGRasmus KupariAssists: Josh Morrissey, Morgan Barron · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 4:37WPGDylan SambergAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 9:33WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.06 xG5–0
- P3 14:15WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Gabriel Vilardi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–0
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:04EDMTy Emberson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:23WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:55EDMDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:40EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:43
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 3–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari9:48
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:01
xG 0.67–0.54 (56%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:37
xG 0.09–0.37 (21%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:41
xG 0.83–0.60 (58%)attempts 14–20goals 2–0
- Samberg – Pionk15:14
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Morrissey – Samberg2:40
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Ryan – Podkolzin8:12
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid4:05
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson3:30
xG 0.07–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark10:37
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Dermott9:09
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard19:51
xG 0.93–0.77 (55%)attempts 28–14goals 0–1
- Kulak – Emberson4:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).