Wed, Oct 9, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 6, Vancouver Canucks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 15 | 110 | 39 | 12 | 626 |
| VAN | 415 | 03 | 16 | 00 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:40VANDaniel SprongPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:48VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 12:16VANConor GarlandAssists: Nils Hoglander, Aatu Räty · Snap, 0.25 xG0–3
- P1 15:49CGYAnthony ManthaSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P1 17:18VANBrock BoeserAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 17:01CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Nazem Kadri, Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 2:41CGYMartin PospisilAssists: Anthony Mantha, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 8:16CGYMacKenzie WeegarPPAssists: Connor Zary, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 10:40CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Brayden Pachal, Jake Bean · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 18:23VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.06 xG5–5
- OT 1:33CGYConnor ZaryGWGAssists: Martin Pospisil, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.37 xG6–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:01VANDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:41CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:41CGYRyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:41VANVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:41CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:41VANDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:19CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:39CGYAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:17CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53CGYAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:53VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:26VANVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P3 7:18VANKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Zary10:06
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kadri – Kuzmenko – Honzek8:26
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Backlund – Lomberg – Klapka2:10
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Lomberg – Klapka3:52
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal13:27
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Andersson – Bahl12:09
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Weegar – Miromanov14:42
xG 0.85–0.93 (48%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Hoglander – Räty6:10
xG 0.48–0.12 (81%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Blueger – Sherwood – Aman8:56
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Miller – Heinen – Boeser7:21
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Sprong – DeBrusk – Pettersson7:59
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes15:00
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Myers – Soucy14:47
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Forbort – Desharnais10:55
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).