Wed, Oct 9, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vegas Golden Knights 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 28 | 110 | 432 |
| VGK | 311 | 25 | 35 | 821 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:15VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 18:32VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 18:57VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 4:15COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 5:49VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 17:32COLCasey MittelstadtAssists: Samuel Girard, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–4
- P2 19:46VGKVictor OlofssonPPGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 6:59COLMikko RantanenAssists: Cale Makar, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 8:29VGKMark StonePPAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Deflected, 0.22 xG4–6
- P3 13:54VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Brayden McNabb · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–7
- P3 19:24VGKBrett HowdenENAssists: Tanner Pearson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–8
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:53VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07COLMiles Wood: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:58VGKPavel Dorofeyev: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:23COLDevon Toews: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 9:43VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen12:26
xG 0.84–0.72 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor8:16
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Ivan5:32
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Kovalenko – Ritchie9:02
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard14:14
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 1–2
- de Haan – Malinski11:39
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar13:25
xG 0.67–0.87 (44%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel11:44
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 10–16goals 4–1
- Olofsson – Roy – Brisson8:14
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Pearson – Kolesar – Howden7:06
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz11:01
xG 0.03–0.36 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hanifin – Hague14:55
xG 0.74–0.84 (47%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
- McNabb – Whitecloud12:51
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore14:04
xG 0.13–0.39 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).