Thu, Oct 10, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 06 | 312 | 323 |
| BUF | 013 | 114 | 06 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:55BUFAlex TuchSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P3 0:13LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Laferriere, Joel Edmundson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 18:22LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Jordan Spence, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:18LAKAnze KopitarENAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:38LAKMikey Anderson: Interference2 min
- P1 4:29LAKJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:24BUFSam Lafferty: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:53LAKQuinton Byfield: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 15:53BUFBeck Malenstyn: Interference2 min
- P2 3:51LAKJordan Spence: Interference2 min
- P2 16:09BUFBowen Byram: Holding2 min
- P2 18:08LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:22LAKKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:22BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:15LAKBrandt Clarke: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 16:20BUFJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:20BUFJason Zucker: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:53BUFMattias Samuelsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:18BUFDylan Cozens: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Laferriere9:50
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Lewis – Turcotte – Lee3:02
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Fiala – Foegele – Byfield9:43
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Danault – Jeannot – Moore8:47
xG 0.05–0.38 (13%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Gavrikov3:41
xG 0.54–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Gavrikov6:45
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Anderson3:01
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Benson8:14
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 25–6goals 0–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Kulich7:27
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs5:20
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod6:06
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power9:02
xG 0.61–0.13 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin9:21
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Byram2:57
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).